BJs RESTAURANTS INC (BJRI)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• As of Nov 20, 2025, BJ’s Restaurants has not yet reported Q4 2025 results; the next earnings release/call is scheduled for Feb 19, 2026, so this recap synthesizes intra-quarter commentary, guidance, and Q2–Q3 trends to frame the Q4 setup and catalysts .
• Momentum heading into Q4: traffic ran approximately +3.5% YoY over the trailing six weeks exiting Q3, with management reiterating FY-2025 comparable sales of ~+2% and prior earnings guidance; pizza platform refresh (launched Nov 6) and two seasonal Pizookies (Nov 12) are key Q4 demand drivers .
• Q3 delivered building-block execution: revenue +1.4% to $330.2M, comps +0.5%, GAAP EPS $0.02, Adjusted EPS $0.04, restaurant-level margin 12.5% (+80 bps), and Adjusted EBITDA $21.1M (+14%); buybacks accelerated ($33.2M) and repurchase authorization was lifted by $75M in October .
• Guidance unchanged vs Q2 for comps (~2%), restaurant-level operating profit ($211–$219M), Adjusted EBITDA ($132–$140M), and capex ($65–$75M), but FY-2025 buyback guidance was raised to $65–$80M (from $45–$55M), signaling confidence into year-end despite check compression and alcohol attach headwinds noted on the call .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • “Fifth consecutive quarter of sales and traffic growth” and “fourth consecutive quarter of profit expansion” in Q3; restaurant-level margins +80 bps YoY to 12.5% and Adjusted EBITDA margins +70 bps to 6.4% .
  • Strong intra-quarter momentum: traffic +~3.5% in last six-plus weeks of Q3, outperforming Black Box casual dining benchmarks, with FY comp guidance reiterated at ~+2% .
  • Strategic product/marketing: social- and value-led Pizookie Meal Deal continued to drive frequency; pizza platform refresh rolled systemwide Nov 6; two seasonal Pizookies launched Nov 12 to sustain buzz and traffic in Q4 .

• What Went Wrong

  • Check compression persisted, driven roughly half by the Pizookie Meal Deal and late-night growth (lower checks) and half by continued pressure on alcohol beverage attachment .
  • Inflation/Cost mix: food cost inflation ran ~2% YoY with beef/seafood elevated (wings favorable); management also cited a ~30 bps tariff headwind in 2H and higher anticipated medical cost accruals partially offsetting labor leverage .
  • G&A/marketing uptick vs prior year as the brand invested in strategy, social/influencer marketing, and brand work; occupancy/operating held flat YoY in Q3 but included asset write-down headwinds .

Financial Results

Note: Q4 2025 results are not yet reported; see schedule in the Q4 column.

KPIs

Segment breakdown: Not applicable (single operating concept; no reported segments) .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Q3 marks our fifth consecutive quarter of sales and traffic growth, along with our fourth consecutive quarter of profit expansion.” — Lyle Tick, CEO .
• “In the last six-plus weeks, our traffic is tracking at roughly +3.5% year-on-year… and outperforming Black Box casual dining benchmarks again… gives us confidence to reiterate our approximately 2% comparable restaurant sales and prior earnings guidance on the year.” — Lyle Tick, CEO .
• “We achieved meaningful increases in our restaurant-level operating profit, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS… driven by table stakes, simplification, the outlier program, and the Pizookie Meal Deal platform.” — Brad Richmond, Board Director .

Q&A Highlights

• Check and alcohol attach: The check compression reflects PMD/late-night mix and lower alcohol attachment; management emphasized gross-to-net improvements lifting margins despite mix pressures .
• Pizza refresh tests: Early tests showed +10–15% pizza incidence uplift, neutral-to-slightly positive checks with more beverages/appetizers attached; the systemwide launch is a foundational upgrade vs. a one-off LTO .
• Share repurchases and leverage: Management stepped up buybacks ($33.2M in Q3) and indicated ample capacity while preserving “dry powder” for remodels and growth .
• Unit growth: Two openings targeted for H2 2026 using a refreshed prototype, with “concentric circle” market strategy to leverage existing infrastructure .
• Pricing philosophy: Maintain value-led positioning with selective pricing/trade-up opportunities; carried pricing ~2.5% into 2H while monitoring guest/value scores .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus for Q4 2025 EPS/Revenue could not be retrieved at this time due to an API request-limit error; we will update this recap with consensus and beat/miss analysis when data access is restored. As of today, Q4 results are slated for Feb 19, 2026, and are not yet reported .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Setup into Q4 is constructive: traffic momentum +~3.5% exiting Q3, reiteration of ~+2% FY comp guidance, and pizza/seasonal dessert pipeline provide multiple catalysts for holiday demand and social engagement .
• Margin work remains visible: restaurant-level margin expanded 80 bps YoY in Q3 to 12.5% as “table stakes,” simplification, and gross-to-net initiatives offset check mix and inflation—key to sustaining EBITDA into Q4 .
• Watch mix and alcohol attach: PMD and late-night growth support traffic/frequency but compress checks; continued pressure on alcohol incidence is a headwind to average check .
• Inflation and tariffs are manageable but not benign: overall inflation guided to mid-2% in Q4; beef remains elevated, and a ~30 bps 2H tariff headwind is embedded in outlook .
• Capital allocation signal is positive: FY buyback guidance raised to $65–$80M, and the Board expanded authorization by $75M in October—confidence in cash generation and valuation .
• Execution roadmap: AI-driven labor model scaling, 20 remodels in 2025, refreshed prototype to restart new-unit growth in H2’26—medium-term drivers beyond near-term comp cadence .
• Leadership update: New CFO (effective Dec 15, 2025) brings industry expertise; expect refined investor communication and continued discipline on returns .

Additional documents read for trend context:

• Q3 2025 press release (financials, guidance, and detail tables) .
• Q3 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) .
• Q2 2025 press release and transcript (prior-quarter baseline) .
• Q4 2024 press release (year-ago comp and seasonality context) .
• Q4 promotional/product press releases: pizza refresh (Nov 6) and seasonal Pizookies (Nov 12) .